Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 61.114351 68.374636 76.697320 87.074077 99.856398 115.354665 136.006315
2025-02-02 53.412033 63.223237 75.591076 92.853268 117.283279 152.372023 210.579672
2025-02-09 47.847963 58.565097 72.884353 94.399584 127.989675 183.072164 294.374947
2025-02-16 43.284856 54.213524 69.424140 93.548491 134.196095 208.714531 390.551710
2025-02-23 39.762278 50.701626 66.426601 92.493385 139.375179 234.578628 517.294692
2025-03-02 36.589951 47.273773 63.004052 89.972993 141.049645 254.096156 659.001387
2025-03-09 34.149663 44.639454 60.420059 88.324504 143.825806 277.730704 871.883514
2025-03-16 31.466964 41.405193 56.540361 83.786472 139.576777 281.583177 1013.564703
2025-03-23 30.807379 41.150816 57.352412 87.765681 154.575173 349.720763 1960.051772
2025-03-30 29.326184 39.500420 55.690295 86.819880 158.119204 385.527078 3187.030473
2025-04-06 27.881538 37.801896 53.786167 85.118868 159.393925 415.090215 5406.877693
2025-04-13 26.220741 35.659824 50.958376 81.223200 154.169346 415.096676 7261.625286
2025-04-20 26.045965 35.941520 52.435700 86.549403 175.907099 569.221264 NaN
2025-04-27 25.868512 36.209677 53.932899 92.294000 202.238328 830.439433 NaN
2025-05-04 25.141899 35.502924 53.569968 93.824871 216.352149 1073.973733 NaN
2025-05-11 24.194863 34.358810 52.281481 92.981949 222.028210 1276.449123 NaN
2025-05-18 23.305529 33.260270 50.988206 91.936886 226.719774 1515.150944 NaN
2025-05-25 22.326783 31.955510 49.202070 89.440220 224.896430 1659.763275 NaN
2025-06-01 21.513263 30.898459 47.826537 87.807043 226.196820 1908.125096 NaN
2025-06-08 20.450744 29.361964 45.423649 83.310315 214.074487 1779.935644 NaN
2025-06-15 20.328003 29.466579 46.259382 87.253374 240.658468 3212.900652 NaN
2025-06-22 19.729820 28.697903 45.292745 86.316253 244.622931 4108.083413 NaN
2025-06-29 19.098133 27.842832 44.099993 84.630715 244.363390 4913.383409 NaN